CBAM Weekly News Update – Week of 24 March – 30 March 2026

This week in CBAM: the 31 March deadline for authorised CBAM declarant applications has arrived, marking a clear shift in customs risk for importers who are not prepared. Meanwhile, the EU ETS carbon price has slipped to its lowest level in almost a year amid evolving political and market dynamics, directly influencing the first CBAM certificate price publication due on 7 April 2026.

1. 31 March Deadline: CBAM Now Operational for Import Compliance

31 March 2026 is the final deadline for importers to apply for authorised CBAM declarant status if they import more than 50 tonnes of CBAM-covered goods into the EU. Without an approved application, customs authorities will have no legal basis to clear covered imports under the definitive regime.¹

For those that applied before the deadline, the transitional provisions allow continued import while the application is processed, provided the correct TARIC codes are declared. National authorities have up to 120 calendar days to review applications. Failure to secure authorisation can lead to import blocks and potential retroactive compliance sanctions.¹

DG TAXUD guidance and operational documentation now emphasise that CBAM is live and operational in 2026, and that emissions calculations, supplier data, and registry interactions are immediate obligations — not just preparatory activities.¹

2. EU ETS Carbon Price at Lowest in Almost a Year

EU ETS carbon allowance prices have recently softened from earlier highs, with market participants noting significant downward pressure in early 2026 — creating the lowest price levels in nearly 12 months. This decline matters because the first CBAM certificate price (to be published on 7 April) is calculated as the quarterly average of EU ETS auction prices for Q1 2026.²

Key drivers behind the price drop include:

• Market sentiment and political uncertainty: EU ETS allowance prices have softened as political debates on carbon pricing design and industrial competitiveness intensify, reducing near-term demand and speculative positions.³
• Broader macro and geopolitical pressures: Energy market dynamics tied to geopolitical events — particularly in the Middle East — have reduced energy price volatility and carbon allowance demand, contributing to weaker ETS pricing.⁴
• ETS reform discussions: Ongoing consideration by EU policymakers to adjust ETS parameters (like the Market Stability Reserve or free allocation phase-out timing) has introduced uncertainty about future carbon price direction, influencing current prices.⁴

A depressed ETS price in Q1 2026 generally signals a lower starting point for the first CBAM certificate price — which can reduce near-term compliance cost expectations, even though actual purchase of CBAM certificates will not be required until February 2027.²

3. 7 April: First Official CBAM Certificate Price Publication

The first official CBAM certificate price is scheduled for publication by the European Commission on 7 April 2026. This price is determined as the quarterly average of EU ETS auction clearing prices for Q1 2026 and will be published on the Commission's CBAM webpage and in the CBAM Registry.²

Although importers do not need to buy certificates until February 2027, the 7 April figure is the first formal, regulated benchmark that organisations can use for internal budgeting, cost modelling, and supplier negotiations.²

The quarterly price publication schedule for 2026 is:

• 7 April 2026 — Q1
• 6 July 2026 — Q2
• 5 October 2026 — Q3
• 4 January 2027 — Q4

After 2026, the Commission will switch to weekly average ETS prices as the basis for CBAM certificate prices beginning in 2027.²

Sources

1. European Commission, DG Taxation & Customs Union — Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism
2. European Commission, DG Taxation & Customs Union — First CBAM Certificate price to be published on 7 April 2026 (6 Mar 2026)
3. ABN AMRO — Carbon Market Strategist: Supply uncertainty and weaker demand reshape carbon
4. Allianz Trade — Signal without response: EU ETS needs resolve, not redesign